Current prices reflect consensus, so the very act of buying is more aggressive than average and therefore likely to be a mistake. Unless we see something no one else does (and have good reason to believe that no one else sees it), there’s no reason to expect any asset to go up. It’s already “up.” And unfortunately, unless we are trading on insider information, everyone has already seen what we see.
Many years ago, back when the dot-com bubble appeared unpoppable, a different friend of mine happened to meet somebody who sheepishly admitted that one of his previous jobs was at a what-we-can-euphemistically-call “adult online entertainment” site, where he was responsible for developing algorithms to determine which customers could safely be double- or even triple-billed.
Duffy is an interesting case," a music industry lawyer says, "because her story applies to a lot of artists. Buoyed by success, they immediately think, ‘Why am I giving 6% of record royalties, a third of my publishing and a 20% management commission to other people? I am a genius! I will do it myself!’ [Duffy parted company with her manager, Rough Trade’s Jeanette Lee, and with Bernard Butler who produced Rockferry, and co-wrote and played on much of it] And then make a bad record without any guidance from professionals. And then they wonder why it’s all gone wrong.
a one stop shop for the pivoting startup
This memo is great stuff. A clear-eyed appraisal of the market, and Nokia’s place within it. If only all CEOs were so competent with language.
Google has given all of its employees $1,000 cash “holiday bonuses” and 2011 salary increases of at least 10%, a loyal reader tells us.
The 10% company-wide raise will take effect on January 1, 2011.
AOL Inc. and several private-equity firms are exploring making an offer to buy Yahoo Inc., according to people familiar with the matter, devising a bold plan to marry two big Internet brands facing steep challenges.
From the comments: “They’re about to go tits-up?”